2026 World Cup: 10 Group Stage Matches Most Likely to Produce Upsets
The 48-team expansion brings more cross-continental matchups. The gap between top teams and underdogs is shrinking. Which group games could see giant killings? 👇
Africa vs Europe and Asia vs South America are the most upset-prone combinations.
🇲🇦 Morocco vs 🇵🇹 Portugal
Morocco already knocked out Portugal in 2022. Portugal’s quality likely drops after Ronaldo’s retirement — Morocco has high revenge + upset potential.
🇯🇵 Japan vs 🇦🇷 Argentina
Japan has beaten Spain and Germany in consecutive World Cups. Not afraid of Argentina’s technical style. Argentina’s post-Messi era is uncertain — Japan has a real chance.
🇸🇳 Senegal vs 🇳🇱 Netherlands
Senegal lost to Netherlands by only 1 goal in 2022. Netherlands’ defense aging by 2026. Senegal’s physicality stronger — draw or narrow win possible.
🇨🇦 Canada vs 🇭🇷 Croatia
Canada led Croatia in 2022. Modrić retired by 2026. Canada’s Davies + David more mature — strong upset potential.
🇰🇷 South Korea vs 🇺🇾 Uruguay
South Korea drew with Uruguay in 2022. Uruguay’s Suárez and Cavani retired. Son and Kim at their peak — a Korean win is not a dream.
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan vs 🇧🇪 Belgium
Belgium’s golden generation retired — sharp decline. Uzbekistan’s young squad full of energy. Asia’s most underrated team could produce a massive upset.
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast vs 🇩🇪 Germany
Germany eliminated in group stage in consecutive World Cups, slow rebuild. Ivory Coast’s Africa Cup-winning squad is strong and physical — can compete.
🇺🇸 USA vs 🏴 England
Both teams drew 0-0 in 2022. USA at home + young stars entering their prime. England prone to tournament letdowns — draw or USA win possible.
🇦🇺 Australia vs 🇫🇷 France
Australia led France 1-0 in 2022. Strong physicality, pragmatic style — can cause problems for France.
🇮🇷 Iran vs 🏴 Scotland
Iran’s defensive discipline is elite. Scotland’s technique is relatively rough. Iran’s counter-attacking speed can punish opponents — upset candidate.
✅ 11. Betting Tips
👉 Japan vs Argentina and Canada vs Croatia offer the best upset value.
👉 Uzbekistan vs Belgium could produce the biggest odds surprise.
👉 Draws between African teams and European giants are worth watching.